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749 B
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21 lines
749 B
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Bayes' Theorem
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---------------
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This page is inpired from `MathIsFun <https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/bayes-theorem.html>`__.
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Theorem
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=========
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.. figure:: figures/bayes_theorem.svg
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:align: center
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:width: 400px
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See the `3Blue1Brown video <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM>`__ for a better understanding.
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Example
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=========
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Hunter says she is itchy. There is a test for Allergy to Cats, but this test is not always right:
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For people that really do have the allergy, the test says "Yes" 80% of the time
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For people that do not have the allergy, the test says "Yes" 10% of the time ("false positive")
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If 1% of the population have the allergy, and Hunter's test says "Yes", what are the chances that Hunter really has the allergy?
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